The Bank of Canada raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points and said it would hold interest rates at the new level of 4.5% "while it assesses the impact of the cumulative interest rate increases.
" The explicit promise of a pause is the first by a major central bank following a global campaign by monetary policymakers to raise interest rates to fight inflation over the past year.
- The central bank did clarify that it is still committed to fighting inflation but appeared to acknowledge that many factors indicate a continued cooldown in inflation numbers going into 2023.
- In its public statement, the bank estimated that the Canadian economy grew by 3.6% in 2022.
- It is projected that Canada will see ~1% GDP growth in 2023 and ~2% in 2024.
- Annual CPI inflation in Canada fell from 8.1% in June 2022 to 6.3% in December 2022.
- The bank also said that "excess demand" and low unemployment continue to drive price inflation, but higher interest rates are expected to curtail demand.
- It did not say explicitly in the statement whether the bank expects — or desires — to have unemployment increase.
- Economist David Macdonald has argued that the aggressive monetary policy pursued by the Bank of Canada — and other central banks around the world — will likely lead to a recession or depression in Canada due to excessive demand reduction via higher unemployment.