The Bank of Canada raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points and said it would hold interest rates at the new level of 4.5% "while it assesses the impact of the cumulative interest rate increases.

 






The Bank of Canada raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points and said it would hold interest rates at the new level of 4.5% "while it assesses the impact of the cumulative interest rate increases.

The explicit promise of a pause is the first by a major central bank following a global campaign by monetary policymakers to raise interest rates to fight inflation over the past year.


  • The central bank did clarify that it is still committed to fighting inflation but appeared to acknowledge that many factors indicate a continued cooldown in inflation numbers going into 2023. 
  • In its public statement, the bank estimated that the Canadian economy grew by 3.6% in 2022.
    • It is projected that Canada will see ~1% GDP growth in 2023 and ~2% in 2024.
  • Annual CPI inflation in Canada fell from 8.1% in June 2022 to 6.3% in December 2022.


  • The bank also said that "excess demand" and low unemployment continue to drive price inflation, but higher interest rates are expected to curtail demand.
  • It did not say explicitly in the statement whether the bank expects — or desires — to have unemployment increase.
  • Economist David Macdonald has argued that the aggressive monetary policy pursued by the Bank of Canada — and other central banks around the world — will likely lead to a recession or depression in Canada due to excessive demand reduction via higher unemployment.

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