The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development

 

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) estimates that Turkey's economy could shrink by 1% due to Feb. 6 earthquake. The estimate accounts for both the damage caused by the earthquake and the expected economic boost from reconstruction efforts.

  • The 7.8 magnitude tremor killed at least 41,000 people in Turkey and neighboring Syria and left hundreds of thousands homeless and in need of humanitarian support.
  • The devastation will hurt the infrastructure and supply chain sectors but since the quake struck mainly agricultural areas, its overall economic impact will be limited, the bank said.
  • The EBRD revised its 2023 growth forecast for Turkey from 3.5% to 3% — without accounting for the damage caused by the earthquake to the country's economy.
    • Turkey is the single biggest recipient of EBRD funds.

  • National elections slated for June could be postponed due to the destruction, according to government officials.
    • Under the Turkish constitution, elections can only be delayed by one year in the case of war
    • Opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu wants the elections to go ahead as planned.

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