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What the numbers say: The consumer prices of pasta, noodles, and couscous in Italy spiked in October after remaining relatively constant since 2015. Prices continued to skyrocket until January 2023, peaking at a CPI of 143.7 in March 2023. The CPI increase was calculated using December 2015 as the base price. Relevance: Pasta, noodles, and couscous are made from wheat or barley, both of which are staple grains that are crucial for food security worldwide. The sharp spike in the price of staple foods in Italy reflects a worldwide trend since the start of 2022. Global wheat prices increased by over 60% from February 24 to June 1, 2022. This rise was due in large part to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which was the world's 5th largest wheat exporter in 2020, while Russia was the world's leading exporter that year. However, price increases began before the invasion, with the price of wheat per metric ton in the U.S. jumping from $198.42 in June 2020 to $374.24 in Jan. 2022. Brands that should care: Food companies may benefit from diversifying their ingredients by, for example, choosing alternative grains, to hedge from potential price upswings. Focusing on crops that grow regionally can also reduce exposure to the effects of geopolitical and macroeconomic turmoil in other parts of the world. |
